Journalist and AP correspondant for Latin America PETER ORSI, presents a snapshot of Mexico’s cartel landscape amid rising violence:
Another year, another homicide total unseen before in Mexico’s modern history as the country struggles to check rising violence.
Cartels and other criminal groups that hold sway over large swaths of territory are blamed for much of it, warring with each other and preying on local populations in places where the state, especially local authority, is weak or even in cahoots with the gangs.
Here’s a look at Mexico’s criminal underworld today:
THE PLAYERS
In
its latest National Drug Threat Assessment, published early this year,
the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration lists six Mexican criminal
organizations as having significant trafficking impact on the United
States: Sinaloa, Jalisco New Generation, Beltran-Leyva, Juarez, Gulf and
the Zetas. But experts say most of the cartels have been splintered
into competing factions in recent years, and today only Sinaloa and
Jalisco meet the traditional conception of cohesive organizations with a
large footprint. There are also other smaller, more local outfits.
Sinaloa,
long led by notorious kingpin Joaquín “El Chapo” Guzmán, who is serving
a life sentence at a Colorado supermax, is based out of the Pacific
coast state of the same name but has a presence in much of the country,
sometimes via allied local proxies. Sinaloa survived an apparent power
dispute after Guzmán’s extradition that ended with the capture of cartel
figure Dámaso López in 2017 and the surrender of his son. Today Guzmán
associate Ismael “El Mayo” Zambada and Guzmán’s sons, known as “los
Chapitos” or “the little Chapos,” are believed to be firmly in control.
Jalisco, based in Guadalajara, Jalisco, is Mexico’s fastest rising cartel, aggressively expansionist and not shying away from brazen, brutal tactics such as the October 2019 massacre of 13 police officers in Michoacan, or the mass dumping in August of 19 bodies in the same state. CJNG leader Nemesio Oseguera Cervantes, alias “El Mencho,” is one of the most wanted men by both Mexico and the United States; the latter has offered a $10 million dollars reward for his capture. The DEA says Jalisco New Generation is present in at least 24 of Mexico’s 32 states.
THE CONFLICTS
There are turf wars in many states, often between
local groups or rival factions of erstwhile allies or even proxies for
the big cartels. Jalisco’s ambition to expand and subsume smaller groups
all over the country is seen as driving much of the conflict.
Experts
say Jalisco is fighting Sinaloa in places from Tijuana, across from San
Diego; to Zacatecas, in central Mexico; to Quintana Roo, home to Cancun
and other popular Caribbean resorts. It’s fighting Gulf and Zetas
splinters in Veracruz, along the Gulf of Mexico. And in states such as
Guerrero and Michoacan, against local groups such as Los Viagras.
Michoacan has seen some of the most shocking violence so far in 2020,
such as the massacre in early February of nine people including four
boys at a video arcade.
Sinaloa is also in conflict with Juarez
remnants and proxies in the border area of the northern states of
Chihuahua and Sonora; it was here that three women and six children from
the U.S.-Mexican Mormon community were ambushed and shot dead in
November along a rural mountain road. Sinaloa is also said to be
supporting some local groups in their fights against Jalisco.
Zetas
and Gulf offshoots are disputing control of the eastern part of
Mexico’s border with Texas, including the Gulf coast state of
Tamaulipas, a key smuggling corridor. Scott Stewart, a vice president
and security analyst for global intelligence firm Statfor, said Jalisco
has also made a play there including in Reynosa, across from McAllen,
Texas. He called the conflict in Reynosa “a free-for-all” with little
likelihood of a single figure emerging to control the “plaza” anytime
soon.
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THE DRUGS
The DEA says Mexican cartels
continue to “export significant quantities of heroin, cocaine,
methamphetamine, marijuana and fentanyl” to U.S. markets.
According
to a February report by Stratfor, synthetics such as meth and fentanyl
offer the largest profit margins. Production appears to be exceeding
U.S. demand, it said, and cartels have begun looking to ship synthetics
to new markets in places like Australia, New Zealand and Europe.
Precursor drugs are often imported from China.
Stratfor
also noted an increase in 2019 in production of concentrated cannabis
oil. Often smuggled in buckets, it’s more compact and easier to move
across the border than the huge marijuana bales of old and can be used
to make edibles and other products.
Most cross-border drug smuggling happens through ports of entry in private vehicles or mixed in with legitimate cargo on tractor-trailer trucks, according to the DEA. Cartels, mostly Sinaloa, employ underground tunnels to California and Arizona. They also use cargo trains, passenger buses, boats and individuals carrying loads in backpacks. The DEA says cartels use light aircraft for drug drops, mostly marijuana. Drone use is currently limited to small loads, though that could change “if their carrying capacity is increased.”
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OTHER INTERESTS
Cartels and gangs aren’t just in the business of smuggling drugs and fighting each other.
Rather,
they have diversified into a range of illegal activities such as
extorting businesses — Coca-Cola Femsa was forced to shutter a bottling
plant in Guerrero in 2018, and last year a Ford dealership in Guanajuato
closed after it was shot up.
Criminal groups are also involved in
kidnapping, people-smuggling and theft of cargo and fuel. President
Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s government has prioritized cracking down
on fuel theft and says it has dramatically reduced incidence rates, but
that has come with its own unwelcome side effects — in Guanajuato, the
Santa Rosa gang has turned from fuel theft to extortion.
A notable exception, according to security consultant Samuel González, who previously headed up the Mexican Attorney General’s Office’s now-defunct Special Organized Crime Unit, is the Sinaloa cartel, which he said has basically stuck to the traditional business of moving drugs: “They have not wanted to get involved in other areas.”
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TACKLING THE GANGS?
López
Obrador espouses what he calls “hugs not bullets,” emphasizing
addressing root social causes of criminality such as poverty, inequality
and joblessness. That’s at least a rhetorical departure from his two
immediate predecessors, the latter of whom launched Mexico’s militarized
anti-cartel offensive in 2006.
López has restructured security
forces under a new National Guard, with tens of thousands of troops
drawn mostly from police and the armed forces. But immediately upon
deployment last year, many Guardsmen were diverted to immigration
enforcement following pressure from Washington.
Last October saw a
security operation in Culiacan, the cradle of the Sinaloa Cartel, that
cornered one of “El Chapo’s” sons. After gunmen with high-caliber
weapons paralyzed the city with gunbattles, blockades and burned
vehicles, authorities ordered a retreat and the son was allowed to go
free to prevent further loss of life. That decision prompted questions
about whether the federal government has a realistic strategy to achieve
security.
López Obrador, in office since December 2018, says it will take time for his holistic approach to bear fruit. He has also said that white-collar crime such as corruption has done more damage than the cartels.
Both gangland violence and corruption are problems that well precede his administration.
Since
then-President Felipe Calderón launched a militarized anti-cartel
offensive in 2006, homicide rates are up more than triple. Mexico
recorded 35,588 murders in 2019, the most since comparable records began
to be kept in the 1990s, although the rate of increase was 2.7% —
significantly below recent years.
The rule of law is broadly wanting in Mexico — over 90% of all crimes go unpunished — and many areas lack firm regional control, either by government or a strong gang.
Source: AP
